Who's this year's Oscars favorite - Anora or Emilia Pérez? Here's our pick 

The 97th Academy Awards are drawing near, and the hype about two movies, Anora and Emilia Pérez, is at a boiling point. Though both films have gained a lot of attention and admiration, the spotlight is ever-more on Sean Baker's Anora as the potential Best Picture winner. But why? What is it about Anora, with its ostensibly humble premise, that sets it apart from a pack of strong contenders?

Anora shares a distinctive and captivating narrative that has struck a deep chord with critics and audiences everywhere, receiving accolades and winning a series of significant awards along the way to the Oscars. From the Producers Guild Awards to the Directors Guild Awards, the film has repeatedly shown its popularity across every voting body within the industry.

Meanwhile, Jacques Audiard's Emilia Pérez, who started as a solid favorite with a record-breaking 13 nominations, has encountered obstacles in the guise of controversy and mixed reaction. The lead actress of the movie was involved in a scandal when there was a resurfacing of inflammatory tweets from her past, impacting the overall mood of the film.

In an environment where the Academy Awards are as much a celebration of film accomplishment as they are a mirror to cultural values and social discourse, the considerations that guide voters are complex. The movie that ultimately wins the prestigious Best Picture award must not only exhibit artistic quality but also resonate with the zeitgeist.

Disclaimer: This article expresses the author's personal views based on industry analysis, betting odds, and awards season outcomes.

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Why is Anora the frontrunner in Oscars 2025?

Sean Baker directed Anora, a bittersweet and humorous tale about a sex worker trying to survive and find love in Brooklyn. The film features Mikey Madison as Ani (Anora), whose acting has been highly acclaimed for being realistic and emotionally resonant. The movie's refreshing mix of comedy, drama, and romance has helped it find a place in the hearts of audiences and critics alike.

The awards season path of the film solidifies its frontrunner position. It took major precursors like the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Award, and the Critics' Choice Award for Best Picture. Historically, these victories are good predictors of Oscar's success.

For example, 12 out of the previous 15 films that received the PGA Award went on to receive Best Picture at the Oscars. Moreover, Sean Baker's Best Director nomination gives credence to Anora's bid because Best Director winners tend to follow Best Picture winners.

Anora also has the backing of betting markets, with it being the heavy favorite (-200) over its nearest rival, Conclave (+260). This funding is a sign of the industry's belief in its viability.

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The story behind Anora’s awards season surge

As a result of its recent momentum, Anora suffered a bumpy off-season beginning. It was snubbed at the Golden Globes while its opponents, such as Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist, were gearing up. But things changed drastically with consecutive triumphs at prominent awards such as PGA and DGA. These came during the opening weeks of Oscar balloting in February, providing it with a well-timed boost as Academy members were completing their ballots.

The appeal of the film is that it resonates with a wide audience. It is different from polarizing contenders like Emilia Pérez, which has been controversial about its representation of transgender issues, as well as lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón's previous tweets. Anora is considered to be a crowd-pleaser. Its storyline of class inequality and survivability is presented in a way that is new but also universally understandable.

Additionally, Mikey Madison's Ani performance has kept the movie in the news. Although Demi Moore is the front-runner to win Best Actress for The Substance, Madison's subtle acting has gained her praise and might influence voters who are searching for an underdog tale.

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How Anora stands against its competition?

Though Anora is in the lead, it has tough competition from other contenders such as Conclave and Emilia Pérez. Directed by Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez is also in the lead with 13 nominations but has not been able to build up pace because of controversies and divided critical responses. Conclave, a political drama based on Vatican politics, has fared well at the BAFTA and SAG Awards and can be a spoiler.

But what makes Anora stand out is its timing and frequency. Its PGA and DGA wins happened at a pivotal time when Oscar voting was taking place. Also, its Best Original Screenplay nomination at both the Oscars and Writers Guild of America (WGA) adds to its credibility. Traditionally, films that win WGA often go on to win Best Picture.

Anora has another advantage working in its favor: its ballot appeal. The Oscars apply ranked-choice voting to Best Picture, which works to the advantage of movies that enjoy widespread backing across Academy branches. As a crowd-pleaser with fewer divisive elements than other contenders, Anora is well-placed to find a top ranking on ballots.

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As we count down to Oscars night, all indications are that Anora will be the probable winner of Best Picture. Whether it sweeps or faces an upset remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Anora has already made its mark on this year’s Oscars race.

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Also read: Oscars 2025 - Winner predictions for the 97th Academy Awards

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