How real is the La Palma disaster theory? Experts reveal details

Netflix has once again delivered a gripping series to its audience, this time with the newly released Norwegian disaster drama, La Palma. Following a group of geological researchers and a family of four, the series offers a survival story as the characters face the terrifying reality of an incoming volcanic eruption.

After watching its realistic action scenes and emotional narrative, many might wonder about the La Palma disaster theory that inspired the Netflix series. So, if you've been wondering the same, make sure to dive deep into the explanation below.

While the four-part series features a fictional narrative, it’s rooted in real-world facts, focusing on the real-life Canary Islands' La Palma. However, Netflix did miss out on a few details about the theory and how it was debunked including the Cumbre Vieja volcano eruption that lasted for almost 85 days, destroying thousands of structures and agricultural lands.

Continue reading to know more about the theory that inspired the Netflix series.

Exploring the origin of the La Palma disaster theory

The series focuses on a family (Image Source: Netflix)

This goes back to 2001 when scientists Steven N. Ward and Simon Day proposed a theory claiming that a massive portion of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma could collapse into the Atlantic Ocean. They explained that if this came true, there would be a rapid collapse with potentially catastrophic consequences.

Not only this, but the theory also suggested that the collapse would trigger a mega-tsunami with waves as high as 82 feet. The waves could also reach the US East Coast, eventually causing millions of deaths globally.

And this is the theory that the Netflix series drew ideas from. The series' terrifying narrative mirrors the potential threats from a tsunami.

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The 2021 volcanic eruption isn't extensively covered in Netflix's La Palma

A still from the Netflix series (Image Source: Netflix)

In 2021, the volcanic eruption of Cumbre Vieja lasted for 85 days from September 19 to December 13, and caused major destruction on the Island. The lava also destroyed several farmlands and homes, leading to a scientific discovery.

Dr. Luca D’Auria, who led the volcanic surveillance team at the Volcanological Institute of the Canary Islands (Involcan) along with her team used seismic tomography to study what was happening beneath the volcano. According to Scientific Reports, D’Auria said:

"Our results suggest that this large magma reservoir feeds the La Palma eruption continuously."

The findings revealed that a massive magma reservoir was feeding volcanic activity. It also revealed that the magma movement was more intense than was expected, making it hard to predict eruptions.

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The La Palma theory of a massive tsunami has been debunked

The disaster theory didn't come true (Image Source: Netflix)

As mentioned above, the La Palma disaster theory was first presented in 2001 by Steven N. Ward and Simon Day, suggesting that the Cumbre Vieja volcano would lead to a massive mega-tsunami. However, since its proposal, experts have shared doubts about the accuracy of the disaster theory.

As shared by the United States Geological Survey, the chances of a massive collapse and the size and power of the tsunami after the 2021 volcanic eruption have become a matter of concern, but it does not claim that a huge disaster would soon take place.

The 2001 La Palma disaster theory suggested that a giant piece of the island would collapse at once and cause quick movements. However, newer studies of the ocean floor around the Canary Islands revealed that collapses happen gradually and in smaller sections.

"Geomorphologists found, via slope stability analysis, that the potential collapse volume is much smaller than was simulated by the 2001 paper."

Since 2001, tsunami modeling has significantly improved and the above-mentioned new research shows that the potential collapse is not as large as originally thought. The largest wave from a worst-case collapse is expected to be around 3 to 7 feet high, which is still dangerous but won't cause a massive global disaster.