What will happen if asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth? Date, time and all we know as NASA issues update

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was revealed on December 27, 2024, is now receiving greater attention as the chance of it colliding with Earth increases. NASA now increased the chances of it hitting us from 1% to 2.3%.

NASA has projected that if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the collision would take place on December 22, 2032, at about 2 p.m. UTC.

In the coming weeks, astronomers have decided to keep tracking its path to refine these calculations. There’s still a 97.7 percent chance that the 2024 YR4 will swerve safely out of the planet’s way, yet scientists are tracking its trajectory closely to eliminate any risk.

The 2024 YR4 is 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) across. According to Newsweek, the energy released in an impact by an object of this size would be similar to a nuclear explosion. Its size will not produce worldwide annihilation, but it could cause extensive harm in a local or regional context, based on where the impact would occur.

A 65-foot-wide meteor exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013, injuring thousands of people and damaging hundreds of buildings. Similarly, the 2024 YR4 asteroid may deliver an even greater shockwave when it impacts, due to its massive size.

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Tracking the Asteroid: How Astronomers Monitor Its Path

Tracking near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as 2024 YR4 requires high-level technologies and cooperation worldwide. NASA has the ATLAS system and the Catalina Sky Survey that specifically look for these types of objects, as per National Public Radio.

Astronomers point telescopes at the night sky and take pictures, searching for objects in motion against the fixed backdrop of stars. Optical telescopes are used to identify NEOs. Whereas radio telescopes can also measure more accurate distance and object size measurements.

According to National Public Radio, if scientists do detect a potential impact threat, they could think about ways to deflect the object. NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission tried just this in 2022, showing that a spacecraft could be crashed into a space rock to change its path.

This success of the DART mission indicates that with sufficient warning, a similar intervention may be possible on 2024 YR4 should it be required.

Soon, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are taking advantage of a rare encounter by sending uncrewed spacecraft to visit the asteroid Apophis, USA Today reported.

Later this year, ESA is aiming to study asteroid remnants up close. USA Today suggests that NASA on the other hand is working on the NEO Surveyor, a dedicated telescope that can spot near-Earth objects that might threaten the planet.