How often is Punxsutawney Phil correct? History explored as groundhog predicts more winter

On the occasion of Groundhog Day, Punxsutawney Phil, the 139-year-old groundhog, recently made his weather prediction. Phil has predicted that the winter will continue for six more weeks and people might not be happy with the same due to the current extreme weather conditions. However, many also wonder how often the groundhog is correct about the weather.

Every year, on February 2nd, Groundhog Day is celebrated to predict whether the winter season will continue for one and a half months or whether people can expect a warmer breeze soon. Phil, the celebrity groundhog, emerges from his burrow on the occasion, and a huge crowd stands before him eagerly waiting for his prediction.

It is believed that if the rodent sees his shadow, the winter season will continue for six more weeks. However, if he does not, spring might begin soon.

While people have been believing in the tradition for more than a century, it has allegedly often not proven to be accurate. Only 30% of his predictions were correct between 2014 and 2023, per The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Are Punxsutawney Phil's predictions correct?

According to Live Science, Punxsutawney Phil's process of predicting the weather has remained the same for the past 138 years. It is the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club that decides which groundhog will be the Phil of the year. While Phil has been predicting the weather for such a long time, it does not mean that it is accurate.

As mentioned above, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says 30% of the time, Phil was right about his prediction between 2014 and 2023. Moreover, he correctly predicted a longer winter in 2014. And, his prediction about an early spring was correct in 2016 and 2020.

Punxsutawney Phil has seen his shadow about 107 times since 1887 and forecasted a longer winter. On the other hand, he has predicted an early spring 20 times. NOAA's data says there was no record of his predictions for ten years. Phil's prediction also worked last year as he did not see his shadow and spring season came early.

The administration has also said that it is difficult to predict the arrival of spring in such a large country with varied climatic conditions across all its regions.

For the unversed, Groundhog Day began as a German Pennsylvania custom between the 18th and 19th centuries. While it originated in Europe, back then, people used to watch hedgehogs or badgers to predict the weather. As the number of hedgehogs went down, people switched to groundhogs as they also hibernate.