There is a minuscule albeit non-zero chance that a massive asteroid Apophis, dubbed the God of Chaos, could collide with Earth. This may happen during its near approach in 2029. However, a study published in The Planetary Science Journal indicates that the chances of this happening are exceedingly low- less than one in a billion- but this cannot be ruled out until at least 2027.
Apophis, named after the Egyptian deity Apep, who represents darkness, spans 1,100 feet across and can be likened to the size of the Eiffel Tower. NASA has classified the near-Earth asteroid as a potentially hazardous object. The Chairman of ISRO, Dr S Somanath, told NDTV,
"A large asteroid strike is a real existential threat for humanity. ISRO is very alive to that threat and our Network for Space Objects Tracking and Analysis (NETRA) is monitoring Apophis very closely. After all, we have only one Earth to live on. India will co-operate with all nations to ward off this and other such future threats."
Apophis, the peanut-shaped asteroid, deemed non-threatening
The peanut-shaped rock was first discovered on Earth's radar in 2004. Since then, its periodicity has been watched closely. At its size, the space rock does not qualify as an asteroid that could wipe out the Earth, but it is big enough to decimate a large city. This, in turn, could trigger climactic effects across the planet. The subsequent encounter is expected in 2029 and then in 2051, 2066, and 2080.
Studies and observations have determined that the asteroid will be on its way on April 13, 2029, without much disruption to our planet. While it will maintain a distance of about 20,000 miles, some damage to the Earth's satellites may be incurred, according to a radar observation campaign in March 2021, NASA reported.
Notably, though, at 20,000 miles, less than one-tenth the distance between Earth and the moon, an asteroid of such a making coming so close to the Earth stands unprecedented. However, NASA also reported that, if anything, astronomers have concluded that the rock won't be a threat for at least another century. Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) said,
“A 2068 impact is not in the realm of possibility anymore, and our calculations don’t show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years. With the support of recent optical observations and additional radar observations, the uncertainty in Apophis’ orbit has collapsed from hundreds of kilometers to just a handful of kilometers when projected to 2029. This greatly improved knowledge of its position in 2029 provides more certainty of its future motion, so we can now remove Apophis from the risk list.”
Yet, this does not account for unforeseen circumstances, such as if a smaller asteroid impacts the course of the asteroid, putting it on the path toward Earth instead.
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According to its website, NASA has allotted a spacecraft, OSIRIS-APophis EXplorer (OSIRIS-APEX), to study Apophis. It will accompany the asteroid as it nears Earth on April 23, 2029, while maintaining a distance of 2,500 miles. Its mission is to study the asteroid's surface and determine its chemical makeup.
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