The results of the U.S. Presidential election 2024 have kept everyone on tenterhooks. Amidst this uncertainty, Barack Obama posted on X urging everyone to note a few essentials during this time. He mentioned that it took many days for vote counting in 2020, so the outcome of this year’s elections will not be known unless the process is completed. Obama wrote,
“Thousands of election workers around the country are working hard today. Respect them. Thank them. Don’t share things before checking your sources. Let the process run its course. It takes time to count every ballot.”
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The vote-counting process usually takes several days to complete as it is thoroughly scrutinized. Final vote counts often take weeks due to varying state regulations. Since the results were out in 2020 in four days this year, it can be speculated that the vote-counting process will be officially completed by November 9, 2024.
In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for instance, processing of mail-in ballots only begins on election day, delaying results. Reports also suggest that it might take less time for the results to be out than the four days in 2020 as there are fewer mail-in ballots this time.
Optical scanners are the most used method for tabulating results, which are then double-checked. Some states, like Pennsylvania, require recounts if margins are tight, with a half-percentage point threshold.
States must certify results by December 11, 2024, but deadlines vary, with Georgia finalizing by November 22, 2024, and Pennsylvania by November 25, 2024. Presidential electors submit results to the President of the Senate - the Vice President by December 25, 2024.
Why does vote counting take time during the U.S. Presidential election?
By November 1, 2024, there were 203 active voting-related legal cases across 40 states. These cases were especially concentrated in swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
Provisional ballots were issued when voter eligibility was uncertain, such as when a voter’s registration couldn’t be confirmed. Ballots could also be contested by poll watchers or staff, with disputes requiring supervisor review before final inclusion or exclusion in the certified tally.
In every election, both party teams collaborate through each voting stage, counting, and reporting to verify results before certification. Some states, like Nevada and California, accept mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day and arriving days later. This can delay unofficial results.
States such as Georgia and Michigan allow early processing, leading to quicker projections. Early vote counting might show Trump in the lead, potentially followed by a "blue shift," while a "red shift" could also occur in other states depending on mail-in ballot processing times.
As per Live Mint, a shift in vote counts could occur again this week, particularly in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. A "blue mirage" could appear with Harris leading, followed by a possible "red shift" reversing the trend in North Carolina and Georgia.
The outcome depends on how and when early and mail-in ballots are processed. Democrats often reside in urban areas where counting takes longer. If a race is too close, delays or recounts may happen.
It is noteworthy that in the U.S. elections, winning the popular vote is not sufficient to secure the presidency. The winner is determined by the Electoral College, with a candidate needing at least 270 electoral votes to win, even if they lose the popular vote.
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