Captain America: Brave New World projected to earn $107 Million on opening weekend

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This year's first MCU project Captain America: Brave New World is just a month away. The fourth Captain America movie will continue Sam Wilson's journey as Captain America after introducing him as the new Cap in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier finale. It will be the first solo movie featuring the character in a decade.

Anthony Mackie will reprise his role as Sam Wilson, and this time has received a new promotion. He will be returning as the new Captain America after finally accepting the mantle in The Falcon and the Winter Soldier finale "One World, One People". Box Office Theory released its predictions that Captain America: Brave New World will earn between $81-107 million on opening weekend.

Captain America: Brave New World's box-office prediction explained

Box Office Theory recently released its predictions for Captain America: Brave New World. Its prediction stated that the Marvel tentpole will have a healthy opening weekend ranging between $81-107 million. This is on par with the first two Captain America movies. Captain America: The First Avenger earned $65 million in its opening weekend, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier opened to $95 million.

The only time a Captain America movie broke the mold and earned over $100 million was in 2016 when the Captain America: Civil War was released. However, the movie featured almost every member of The Avengers and even the first appearance of MCU Spider-Man and Black Panther. These exciting factors contributed to Captain America: Civil War's $179 million domestic opening.

While Captain America: Brave New World may perform like other solo Captain America movies, it may outperform its competition, Paddington in Peru. The acclaimed third Paddington movie is predicted to make somewhere between $16-25 million, Brave New World the clear winner for the Valentine's Day weekend. Box Office Theory's predictions are based on some tracking factors.

What are Box Office Theory's Captain America: Brave New World tracking factors?

Box Office Theory based its prediction on the following rationale and factors:

Die-hard Marvel fans are excited for the new era of Captain America on the big screen with Captain America: Brave New World. They want to see Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson as Captain America after the Disney+ streaming series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier which was released in March 2021. Excitement for Brave New World on Social media platforms is supposedly comparable to that of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 before its release.
Harrison Ford, stepping into the late William Hurt’s shoes as General Thaddeus “Thunderbolt” Ross. Marvel's older audience is intrigued because Captain America: Brave New World is grounded as the trailers suggest.

What is Captain America: Brave New World about?

Sam Wilson is back in action this time to uncover a sinister conspiracy involving Isaiah Bradley, Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross. Into the mix are Joaquin Torres as Falcon this time and the mysterious Ruth Bat-Seraph, who is a former Black Widow. The synopsis for Captain America: Brave New World reads:

"Anthony Mackie returns as the high-flying hero Sam Wilson, who’s officially taken up the mantle of Captain America. After meeting with newly elected U.S. President Thaddeus Ross, Sam finds himself in the middle of an international incident. He must discover the reason behind a nefarious global plot before the true mastermind has the entire world seeing red."

To prepare for the upcoming movie, you can catch the previous Captain America movies and The Falcon and the Winter Soldier on Disney+. Captain America: Brave New World will be theatrically released worldwide on 14th February 2025.